Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 16 at the 81

Green Bay Packers 0 – Minnesota Vikings 13

(9:52) 19-D.Whelan punts 63 yards to MIN 18, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 82-J.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -2.72 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.72 EP
69% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 81, worth -4.70 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model