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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 20 at the 60

Green Bay Packers 0 – Minnesota Vikings 13

What Actually Happened

(2:03) 19-D.Whelan punts 57 yards to MIN 3, Center-42-M.Orzech. 82-J.Jones to MIN 8 for 5 yards (34-S.Bartholomew).

The Three Options

GO -1.65 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.27 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 60, worth -3.33 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 19, worth -0.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model