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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 6 at the 25

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(10:32) 16-W.Reichard 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.

The Three Options

GO +1.47 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +5.06 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25, worth -0.56 EP
KICK +1.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 35, worth -1.52 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model