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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 2 at the 67

Minnesota Vikings 13 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(7:16) 17-R.Wright punts 55 yards to GB 12, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 84-J.Keeney-James.

The Three Options

GO -0.48 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.73 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 67, worth -3.78 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.77 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 25, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model