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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 15 at the 44

Green Bay Packers 0 – Minnesota Vikings 13

What Actually Happened

(10:42) 19-D.Whelan punts 30 yards to MIN 14, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 82-J.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -0.60 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.08 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 44, worth -2.40 EP
KICK -0.59 EP
  • 52% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.86 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 12, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model