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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 7 at the 7

Minnesota Vikings 3 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(3:05) 16-W.Reichard 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.

The Three Options

GO +1.77 EP
  • 32% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.80 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 7, worth -0.10 EP
KICK +1.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.52 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model