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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 1 at the 21

Minnesota Vikings 3 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(4:34) (No Huddle) 9-J.McCarthy up the middle to GB 20 for 1 yard (57-B.Cox; 33-E.Williams). Green Bay challenged the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)

The Three Options

GO +2.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.62 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.48 EP
KICK +1.63 EP
  • 92% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 31, worth -1.18 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model