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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 4 at the 53

Green Bay Packers 0 – Minnesota Vikings 3

What Actually Happened

(9:13) 19-D.Whelan punts 44 yards to MIN 9, Center-42-M.Orzech. 82-J.Jones to MIN 9 for no gain (16-B.Melton). GB-16-B.Melton was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -0.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.60 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 53, worth -3.07 EP
KICK -1.61 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.35 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.88 EP
PUNT -0.92 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 15, worth -0.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP