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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 6 at the 74

Minnesota Vikings 3 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(12:41) 17-R.Wright punts 44 yards to GB 30, Center-42-A.DePaola, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.64 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.74 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 74, worth -4.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 32, worth -1.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model