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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 17 at the 17

New York Giants 3 – Dallas Cowboys 3

What Actually Happened

(1:20) 30-B.Sauls 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO +0.96 EP
  • 25% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.68 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 17, worth -0.60 EP
KICK +1.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 27, worth -0.96 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model