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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 4 at the 4

Dallas Cowboys 0 – New York Giants 3

What Actually Happened

(5:24) 17-B.Aubrey 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +2.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.50 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 4, worth -0.02 EP
KICK +1.51 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.55 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 21, worth -0.76 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.93 EP