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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 8 at the 26

New York Giants 0 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(9:20) 30-B.Sauls 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO +1.49 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +5.07 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26, worth -0.59 EP
KICK +1.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 36, worth -1.54 EP
PUNT +0.31 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model