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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 16 at the 74

New York Giants 34 – Dallas Cowboys 17

What Actually Happened

(:27) 12-J.Gillan punts 36 yards to DAL 38, Center-59-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.18 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +0.63 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 74, worth -2.02 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -0.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 32, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model