4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 8 at the 12

New York Giants 24 – Dallas Cowboys 17

What Actually Happened

(9:25) 30-B.Sauls 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO +1.75 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.82 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 12, worth -0.44 EP
KICK +1.55 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 22, worth -1.00 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model