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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 1 at the 47

Dallas Cowboys 10 – New York Giants 24

What Actually Happened

(1:52) (Shotgun) 10-J.Milton left end pushed ob at NYG 24 for 23 yards (36-R.Payton).

The Three Options

GO +1.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.88 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 47, worth -2.66 EP
KICK -1.17 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.51 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.82 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 13, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model