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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 8 at the 39

Dallas Cowboys 10 – New York Giants 24

What Actually Happened

(6:56) 17-B.Aubrey 57 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +0.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.87 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 39, worth -2.11 EP
KICK -0.24 EP
What Happened
  • 59% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.53 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 48, worth -2.81 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP