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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 4 at the 82

Dallas Cowboys 10 – New York Giants 16

What Actually Happened

(12:47) 5-B.Anger punts 65 yards to NYG 17, Center-44-T.Sieg. 80-G.Olszewski to NYG 38 for 21 yards (86-L.Schoonmaker; 40-H.Luepke).

The Three Options

GO -1.81 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.76 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 82, worth -4.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -2.31 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 40, worth -2.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EP