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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 11 at the 49

New York Giants 0 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(12:39) 12-J.Gillan punts 48 yards to DAL 1, Center-59-C.Kreiter, downed by NYG-23-A.Green.

The Three Options

GO -0.37 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.78 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
KICK -1.06 EP
  • 33% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.96 EP
  • 67% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.57 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 14, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model