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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 2 at the 3

Dallas Cowboys 10 – New York Giants 9

What Actually Happened

(2:54) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short right to 3-G.Pickens (36-R.Payton). Penalty on DAL-78-T.Steele, Offensive Holding, declined.

The Three Options

GO +3.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.38 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 3, worth -0.31 EP
KICK +1.49 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.53 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 21, worth -0.80 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model