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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 3 at the 4

New York Giants 6 – Dallas Cowboys 10

What Actually Happened

(9:48) 30-B.Sauls 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO +3.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.48 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 4, worth +0.08 EP
KICK +1.50 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.53 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21, worth -1.00 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.79 EP