Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 6 at the 72

Cleveland Browns 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 6

(6:29) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 50 yards to CIN 22, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 12-K.Williams pushed ob at CIN 30 for 8 yards (20-D.Ross; 86-B.Whiteheart).

The Three Options

GO -2.15 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.13 EP
59% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 72, worth -4.44 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model