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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 3 at the 31

Cleveland Browns 17 – Cincinnati Bengals 18

What Actually Happened

(:03) 25-A.Szmyt 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. ** Injury Update: CIN-23-D.Hill has returned to the game.

The Three Options

GO +0.60 EP
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +1.30 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 31, worth -0.02 EP
KICK +2.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.98 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 41, worth -0.15 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model