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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 1 at the 82

Cleveland Browns 17 – Cincinnati Bengals 12

What Actually Happened

(2:50) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 46 yards to CIN 36, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 12-K.Williams to CIN 39 for 3 yards (28-T.Avery).

The Three Options

GO -0.76 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.71 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 82, worth -4.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -1.50 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 40, worth -1.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EP