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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 15 at the 50

Cincinnati Bengals 12 – Cleveland Browns 17

What Actually Happened

(3:56) 8-R.Rehkow punts 41 yards to CLE 9, Center-46-W.Wagner, fair catch by 84-G.Larvadain.

The Three Options

GO -0.76 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.06 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 50, worth -2.19 EP
KICK -0.73 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.19 EP
PUNT -0.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 14, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model