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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 5 at the 41

Cleveland Browns 17 – Cincinnati Bengals 12

What Actually Happened

(10:42) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 32 yards to CIN 9, Center-50-R.Sunahara, fair catch by 12-K.Williams.

The Three Options

GO +0.18 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.55 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 41, worth -2.08 EP
KICK -0.19 EP
  • 60% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.53 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 12, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP