4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 10 at the 44

Cincinnati Bengals 12 – Cleveland Browns 17

What Actually Happened

(2:02) 8-R.Rehkow punts 35 yards to CLE 9, Center-46-W.Wagner, fair catch by 84-G.Larvadain.

The Three Options

GO -0.29 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.66 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 44, worth -2.18 EP
KICK -0.38 EP
  • 52% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.70 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 12, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model