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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 1 at the 47

Cincinnati Bengals 12 – Cleveland Browns 17

What Actually Happened

(4:45) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 88-M.Gesicki to CLE 44 for 3 yards (30-D.Bush).

The Three Options

GO +1.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.99 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 47, worth -2.53 EP
KICK -0.71 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.70 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 13, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model