4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 9 at the 9

Cleveland Browns 14 – Cincinnati Bengals 12

What Actually Happened

(8:05) 25-A.Szmyt 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +1.47 EP
Model's Pick
  • 28% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.45 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 9, worth -0.05 EP
KICK +1.43 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.88 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model