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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 1 at the 56

Cleveland Browns 14 – Cincinnati Bengals 12

What Actually Happened

(13:13) 3-J.Jeudy left end to CLE 49 for 5 yards (49-B.Carter).

The Three Options

GO +0.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.33 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 56, worth -3.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 17, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model