Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 4 at the 64

Cleveland Browns 14 – Cincinnati Bengals 6

(4:51) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 45 yards to CIN 19, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 12-K.Williams to CIN 21 for 2 yards (86-B.Whiteheart).

The Three Options

GO -1.04 EP

47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.91 EP
53% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 64, worth -3.65 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model