Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 8 at the 76

Cincinnati Bengals 6 – Cleveland Browns 14

(6:26) 8-R.Rehkow punts 50 yards to CLE 26, Center-46-W.Wagner. 84-G.Larvadain pushed ob at CLE 30 for 4 yards (37-P.Jules).

The Three Options

GO -1.95 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.55 EP
60% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 76, worth -4.25 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model