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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 5 at the 61

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(12:52) 8-R.Rehkow punts 58 yards to CLE 3, Center-46-W.Wagner. 84-G.Larvadain to CLE 5 for 2 yards (37-P.Jules; 43-J.Giles-Harris).

The Three Options

GO -0.43 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.90 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 61, worth -3.22 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 20, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model