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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 6 at the 50

Cincinnati Bengals 6 – Cleveland Browns 14

What Actually Happened

(9:51) 8-R.Rehkow punts 38 yards to CLE 12, Center-46-W.Wagner, fair catch by 84-G.Larvadain.

The Three Options

GO -0.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.05 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 50, worth -2.69 EP
KICK -1.13 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.53 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.69 EP
PUNT -0.76 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 14, worth -0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP