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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 13 at the 48

Carolina Panthers 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10

What Actually Happened

(14:58) 6-S.Martin punts 42 yards to TB 6, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-29-A.Evans.

The Three Options

GO -1.00 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.48 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 48, worth -2.91 EP
KICK -1.58 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.33 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.97 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model