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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 8 at the 11

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(2:01) 4-C.McLaughlin 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +2.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.24 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP
KICK +1.82 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.59 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP