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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
Carolina Panthers
4th & 10 at the 50
Carolina Panthers 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7
What Actually Happened
(7:32) 6-S.Martin punts 50 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.Jansen, Touchback.
The Three Options
GO
-0.97 EP
-
34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.10 EP
- 66% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 50, worth -3.05 EP
KICK
-1.85 EP
- 28% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.28 EP
- 72% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.05 EP
PUNT
-0.76 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.76 EP
The Verdict
Chose PUNT
✓ matched the model
