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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 9 at the 44

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16 – Carolina Panthers 14

What Actually Happened

(:26) 9-R.Dixon punts 41 yards to CAR 3, Center-86-E.Deckers. 87-B.Tremayne to CAR 3 for no gain (48-J.Gray).

The Three Options

GO -0.10 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +0.92 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 44, worth -0.66 EP
KICK +0.65 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.65 EP
  • 57% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -0.83 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.70 EP