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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 8 at the 48

Carolina Panthers 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16

What Actually Happened

(3:10) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep middle to 4-T.McMillan to TB 8 for 40 yards (25-J.Parrish).

The Three Options

GO -0.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +2.69 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 48, worth -1.89 EP
KICK -0.70 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -1.92 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model