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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 5 at the 20

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(5:18) 4-C.McLaughlin 38 yard field goal is BLOCKED (92-C.Jackson), Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +1.61 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.79 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 20, worth -0.63 EP
KICK +1.47 EP
What Happened
  • 91% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30, worth -1.27 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model