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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 5 at the 30

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(14:17) 4-C.McLaughlin 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +1.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.37 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30, worth -1.17 EP
KICK +0.98 EP
What Happened
  • 78% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 40, worth -1.89 EP
PUNT +0.10 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model