Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 12 at the 78

Carolina Panthers 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13

(4:37) 6-S.Martin punts 47 yards to TB 31, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 19-K.Johnson.

The Three Options

GO -2.50 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.45 EP
66% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 78, worth -4.58 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model