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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 7 at the 53

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(8:14) 9-R.Dixon punts 46 yards to CAR 7, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 23-T.Etienne.

The Three Options

GO -0.56 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +3.04 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 53, worth -2.96 EP
KICK -1.77 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model