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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 12 at the 36

Carolina Panthers 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13

What Actually Happened

(10:31) 10-R.Fitzgerald 54 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO -0.13 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.35 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 36, worth -2.01 EP
KICK -0.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.69 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model