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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 10 at the 56

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(4:30) 9-R.Dixon punts 43 yards to CAR 13, Center-86-E.Deckers. 23-T.Etienne to CAR 16 for 3 yards (48-J.Gray).

The Three Options

GO -0.88 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +3.11 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 56, worth -3.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 17, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model