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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 18 at the 27

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Los Angeles Rams 3

What Actually Happened

(3:30) 38-C.Ryland 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-39-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO -0.13 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.23 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 27, worth -1.68 EP
KICK +0.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.05 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 37, worth -2.46 EP
PUNT -0.64 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model