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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 3 at the 11

Arizona Cardinals 20 – Los Angeles Rams 37

What Actually Happened

(1:55) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett sacked at LA 18 for -7 yards (94-D.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO +2.14 EP
What Happened
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +4.76 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP
KICK +2.53 EP
Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.62 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 22, worth -0.32 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.40 EP