Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 12 at the 67

Arizona Cardinals 20 – Los Angeles Rams 30

(9:27) 39-M.Haack punts 57 yards to LA 10, Center-46-A.Brewer. 19-X.Smith to LA 19 for 9 yards (42-D.Taylor-Demerson; 31-E.Demercado).

The Three Options

GO -1.83 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.17 EP
68% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 67, worth -3.71 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model