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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 16 at the 86

Arizona Cardinals 20 – Los Angeles Rams 23

What Actually Happened

(13:40) 39-M.Haack punts 52 yards to LA 34, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 19-X.Smith.

The Three Options

GO -3.18 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.24 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 86, worth -5.07 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

PUNT -2.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 44, worth -2.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model