Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 10 at the 68

Los Angeles Rams 16 – Arizona Cardinals 13

(10:18) 42-E.Evans punts 53 yards to ARI 15, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 80-S.Sims to ARI 24 for 9 yards (34-T.Ingle).

The Three Options

GO -1.38 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.30 EP
60% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 68, worth -3.89 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model