4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 8 at the 71

Arizona Cardinals 6 – Los Angeles Rams 16

What Actually Happened

(11:26) (Punt formation) 39-M.Haack pass deep middle to 31-E.Demercado to LA 43 for 28 yards (19-X.Smith).

The Three Options

GO -1.84 EP
What Happened
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.85 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 71, worth -4.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.49 EP
Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 29, worth -1.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.36 EP